Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
