A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
